On January 24, 2024, over a hundred brokers from Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty gathered alongside industry experts and keynote speaker economist Matthew Gardner at the Kirkland Branch Office in anticipation of the upcoming Spring sales season. The event provided an opportunity for speakers and attendees to candidly assess the current state of the market and its future trajectory as we emerge from the downturn experienced in 2023 and embark on what promises to be an eventful 2024 in real estate.

Beginning with encouraging news, market analysts concur that we have reached an inflection point, signifying the end of the market downturn. As we move further into the new year, projections indicate a more stable market characterized by expanding sales volumes and inventory. This positive outlook is underpinned by several factors, including the enduring desirability of the Puget Sound region, the indication that mortgage interest rates will be more favorable, and an upward trend in home prices.

The event commenced with a warm welcome from CEO, and Owner Dean Jones and CMO Andrea Savage, marking the 10th anniversary of the Kirkland Branch Office. They celebrated the partnership with Puget Sound Business Journal, providing a valuable platform for brokers to showcase properties through the esteemed "Home of the Day" feature. The Kirkland branch's achievement as the "Best Real Estate Agency" for the third consecutive year was also honored, acknowledging the exceptional dedication of our Kirkland brokers. Similar recognition was bestowed upon the Bellevue and Bainbridge Island branch offices. Despite the challenging market conditions experienced last year, our dedicated advisors demonstrated unwavering commitment in delivering exceptional service and results for their esteemed clients. RSIR continues to stand out as the top-producing Sotheby’s International Realty affiliate in Washington state, boasting the highest percentage of producing agents, the highest average listing price sold, and the highest inventory volume per agent. Notably, RSIR has excelled in representing the region’s most valuable real estate, achieving remarkable success in terms of sales, inventory, and productivity compared to the top ten largest brands (based on Trendgraphix research using NWMLS data in 2023).

Matthew Gardner, principal of Gardner Economics, brought 25 years of experience analyzing economic data within the real estate market to the event as he discussed our country’s current economic state, from inflation to employment rates, and where he sees it turning in the near future. Gardner does not anticipate a recession, putting the odds of one happening at about 15 percent. His perspective not only indicates a positive outlook for the local real estate market but also underscores expectations of increased housing values. The stable market undoubtedly presents attractive and promising investment opportunities. This is particularly evident in our region, where job growth is projected to outpace other thriving cities. Seattle's robust tech industry and the recovery of tech stock values make it an appealing location for both new residents and potential homebuyers, including affluent renters looking for a lucrative and promising housing market.

A key topic of conversation was House Bill 1110, which was signed into law and requires municipalities to allow for in-fill development of dwellings inside single-family zoned properties. The zoning guidelines must be underwritten by the year end of 2024 with permits available by July 1, 2025. The new zoning may not have a big impact on the need for affordable housing in the region right away. It's like in other cities where similar laws only led to a few thousand new housing units over several years, which is about the same as allowing four big apartment buildings. The new rules might make housing more expensive in areas without nearby public transport, and add to the already crowded roads around Seattle.

Gardner wrapped up his presentation and a following Q&A and left attendees with much to contemplate in the coming year. The event progressed with a panel discussion with a memorable lineup, including Porter Founder and Vice President of Sales Kathleen Selke, Singer/Songwriter and TEDx Alum Jennifer Rae Getz, and UBS Senior Vice President/Financial Advisor Kurt Owen. Owen discussed presidential elections’ impact on the real estate market, noting that typically we see the biggest period for returns in the third to fourth years if we’re looking at it from a four-year-cycle perspective.

The day was packed full of relevant data and expert analysis, illuminating projections, and the overwhelming feeling that as we navigate the ever-changing market, the robust RSIR community will continue to thrive, due to the talent and commitment that our brokers display under all conditions. RSIR is a remarkable family because of the individuals who contribute to it. As Dean Jones says, “It’s always important to bet on yourself.” A complete presentation by Matthew Gardner can be found here. Look out for the approaching 2024 Forecast Report blog post which will include further data and predictions about the year ahead.

When you are prepared to take the next step in 2024 or have questions, don't hesitate to contact me, as your trusted advisor from Realogics Sotheby's International Realty. Together, we can strategize and work towards achieving your real estate goals in this dynamic environment. Choosing a professional real estate broker with superior marketing, property presentation, and negotiation skills is essential in this market. As a knowledgeable Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty broker, I am here to help you navigate the ever-changing market, ensuring you make the best decision for your investment, lifestyle, and home.